Saturday, 11 May 2019

Lies, damn lies and Conservative leaflets

Leaflets have started to arrive for the election we were not supposed to have. The Conservatives are blaming Labour for the impasse; the Brexit Party are blaming everyone; Labour are sitting on the fence.  Inexactitudes, half-truths and empty promises are all a familiar part of electioneering.  The Conservative leaflet has, however, angered me for its blatant misuse of statistics.

When I worked in research & development, statistics were very important and manipulating them to suit ones preferred outcome was inexcusable. So how about this for a bit of statistical balderdash?


  • First of all, notice that 21% of Conservative MPs do not appear on the Who's blocking it? side, even though the 2% of supportive Labour MPs are correctly shown on the left.  
  • Moreover, the DUP, without whose support the government would have fallen in its first week, have been surreptitiously lumped with Change UK, whereas they should surely be grouped with the rebellious Conservatives. 
  • But what's this... 100% of Green MPs?  There is only one Green MP! And 100% of Lib Dems is only 11.

So let's redraw the right hand side, adding a scale and using the truthful proportions.
Sorry, Mrs May, but you really can't blame the Greens for your humiliating defeats in the House of Commons. After Labour who are, after all, the official opposition, the second-biggest culprits – if culprits they be (which I rather doubt) – are your own party and those who have kept you in power.

Having got this far, I suppose I ought to declare my hand and say who I'll be voting for. My logic doubtless runs counter to most people's but I reason that there's no point in voting for anyone who wants us to leave the EU, irrespective of whether one supports Brexit or not, as they don't want the UK represented there anyway. And lets face it; there's little any of them could do from Brussels or Strasbourg to influence the machinations of the House of Commons. Their presence would merely be symbolic – a final "up yours!" to the EU. However, in the increasingly unlikely event that we don't leave, we'll surely need MEPs who are sympathetic to the EU's ambitions.  So I'll be voting Lib Dem. If they win, I'll truly be gobsmacked.



1 comment:

  1. I really can't stomach having to vote in the forthcoming European Parliament election, but aside from that, I wouldn't be able to bring myself to vote for any of the parties contending. They either want to block Brexit, or, even if they say they support Brexit, as the two major parties officially do, they don't deserve my vote because I am fed up with them. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party appears to be catching the mood of many for the time being, but I am not going to give him my vote either. As for the intolerant xenophobes in UKIP...ugh.

    I actually have a convenient reason for not taking part: I shall be on holiday, and it's too late now to organise a postal vote.

    I nearly always vote - it was a fought-for right, and not to be lightly tossed aside - but I'm rather glad to opt out on this occasion.

    Incidentally I voted LibDem in the recent Council elections. I consider them the best thing for local issues. But their 'Bollocks to Brexit' campaign is a mile away from my way of thinking!

    I wish there was a party that would take us out of the EU, keep us politically separate, but still keep us closely allied and associated with Europe. Brexit needs to be much more nuanced, and not simply boiled down to trading matters.

    Lucy

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