Saturday 19 December 2015

I'm dreaming of a warm, grey, wet, white, still or stormy Christmas

Here in the Forest of Dean, the nearest we've got in recent 
years to a White Christmas was a substantial snow fall on 
January 18th, 2013.  This is Lydney on that snowy morning.
The British seem obsessed with the weather.  It all comes, I'm sure, from living in a temperate climate, in which summers may be baking hot, or cool and wet, and the winter snows may be deep and crisp and even, or the winter muds deep and warm and boggy.

Along with this obsession comes, unsurprisingly, one for weather forecasts.  In my teenage years I took quite an interest in the subject myself and might well have perused a career in meteorology. I had a Stephenson Screen in the back garden and recorded temperatures and rainfall for several years.

The Meteorological Office tell us that the quality of their forecasts has been improving, and I believe them.  However, the way in which others interpret those forecasts — especially the tabloid press — risks giving the whole weather forecasting business a bad name.

Back on October 21st the Daily Mirror proclaimed

Britain set for white Christmas?  

36 days of snow forecast after 'coldest Atlantic for 80 years'  


"36 days of snow," mark you.  That's an impressive amount for these isles, even if you reside in the north of Scotland.

AOL News latched on to the story too:
    Britain could be set for a White Christmas as temperatures are set to plummet to -16C, say forecasters.
    Bookmakers have slashed the odds on a snowy Christmas Day, with Ladbrokes placing London at 7/1. Some weather forecasters believe Britain could be in for the coldest winter since the Big Freeze in December 2010, when temperatures dropped to -21C.
    The Metro reports that some weather experts have predicted 36 days of snow and ice.
    The reason? Scientists say the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is to blame as it's slowing the Gulf Stream, pushing cold temperatures towards Britain.

Ah, so it's all down to Global Warming. What isn't, these days? Yet all this seemed so unlikely that I filed the story away and waited to see what would happen.  Well, you've guessed it.  Here's what the Daily Mirror had to say on December 16th, in a story about Saharan dust engulfing the nation (my underlining):
    It comes as Britain basks in a freakish mid-winter hot spell as forecasters say we could be heading for the mildest Christmas on record.  Thermometers are set to rocket to 17C widely with even Scotland and the north seeing highs of 13C this week.

Poor forecasters!  I rest my case.



1 comment:

  1. That about covers the lot then
    Julliette

    ReplyDelete